MyDD :: New ARG Polls! HRC Leads BIG in Kentucky, Within Striking Distance in Oregon!

New ARG Polls! HRC Leads BIG in Kentucky, Within Striking Distance in Oregon!

by mtg44234, Fri May 16, 2008 at 11:22:09 AM EST

American Research Group has just released new polls out today for Kentucky:

HRC: 65%
Obama: 29%

For Oregon, this is good news for Hillary:

HRC: 45%
Obama: 50%

She will be the popular vote leader, and the Republicans are already attacking his experience on the national and international theme...these two do need to team up for the Democrats to win.

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/

Tags: Hillary Clinton, Obama, Primaries (all tags)

Permalink :: 50 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: New ARG Polls! HRC Leads BIG in Kentucky, With (2.00 / 1)

A
R
G

We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.

by politicsmatters on Fri May 16, 2008 at 11:24:28 AM EST

Re: New ARG Polls! HRC Leads BIG in Kentucky, With (2.00 / 5)

I'm heading to Oregon tomorrow.

Can't wait to help her.

I hope she can close this gap.

by nikkid on Fri May 16, 2008 at 11:26:48 AM EST

Yay Republicans! (1.00 / 1)

Attack our nominee! Attack! Attack!

/FR,H44,TM,RS.

should we go outside? / should we break some bread? / are you'nterested?

by Firewall on Fri May 16, 2008 at 11:27:31 AM EST

Re: New ARG Polls! HRC Leads BIG in Kentucky, With (none / 0)

ARG always overstates Hillary's position by 5 Points.

That would mean OR would end up 60/40 and KY would end up 40/60 for Obama.

by Bobby Obama on Fri May 16, 2008 at 11:28:03 AM EST

Re: New ARG Polls! HRC Leads BIG in Kentucky, With (none / 0)

This isn't true. ARG has been a bad pollster, but it hasn't been in Clinton's favor at all times. IN NH, they, like most pollsters had Obama running away with it at the end. They've also done some accurate work in some races too.

by Mayor McCheese on Fri May 16, 2008 at 11:40:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New ARG Polls! HRC Leads BIG in Kentucky, With (none / 0)

ARG is a reliable pollster now?

Beat McCain!

by thezzyzx on Fri May 16, 2008 at 11:28:35 AM EST

ARG, huh (2.00 / 1)

It just had to be ARG.
just had to be ARG.
had to be ARG.
to be ARG.
be ARG.
ARG.
.

by Fairy Tale on Fri May 16, 2008 at 11:28:39 AM EST

Pathetic (none / 0)

You're using GOP attacks against Obama on the Hamas thing as evidence that Clinton should be the nominee?

This poll is BS on both fronts. Every other poll out of Oregon shows Obama with a 14 point lead. And no way Obama's numbers in KY stay at WV levels.

by elrod on Fri May 16, 2008 at 11:28:42 AM EST

Re: Pathetic (none / 0)

And no way Obama's numbers in KY stay at WV levels.

Kentucky is even more redneck than West Virginia. I think the KY results will be similar to those in WV.

by kingsbridge77 on Fri May 16, 2008 at 11:34:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Pathetic (none / 0)

Your wishful thinking won't make it so.

should we go outside? / should we break some bread? / are you'nterested?

by Firewall on Fri May 16, 2008 at 11:39:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Pathetic (none / 0)

It's not wishful thinking. It's reasonable hypothesis supported by results from similar states, polling data, and the demographic makeup of Kentucyk.

by Mayor McCheese on Fri May 16, 2008 at 11:43:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Pathetic (none / 0)

Kentucky isn't West Virginia. The university count's much higher, and WV actually makes KY look somewhat diversified. As someone currently living in KY (and a few blocks away from an Obama outpost), I can quite assuredly state he'll do better in KY than he did in WV.

should we go outside? / should we break some bread? / are you'nterested?

by Firewall on Fri May 16, 2008 at 11:45:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Pathetic (none / 0)

I didn't say it was, but the demographis are SIMILAR. I never said identical. Obama might do a little bit, but probably not much. But we shall see.

by Mayor McCheese on Fri May 16, 2008 at 11:47:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Pathetic (none / 0)

The results will be similar in that she'll win, but he's easily going to break 30, if not 40.

should we go outside? / should we break some bread? / are you'nterested?

by Firewall on Fri May 16, 2008 at 11:49:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Pathetic (none / 0)

Seems like a stretch to me. (40) Thirty possibly, maybe even likely.

by Mayor McCheese on Fri May 16, 2008 at 11:51:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Demographics say (none / 0)

Kentucky is richer than West Virginia
Kentucky is more educated than West Virginia
Kentucky is less white than West Virginia
Kentucky is younger than West Virginia

Granted, it's just a comparison -- on the whole, it's still good Clinton margins, but via which exact demographic measure is Kentucky more favorable to her than West Virginia was?

If I had to guess, 30 points seems like a reasonable spread, and it's more in line with the other pollsters:
Clinton +32 (SUSA 5/9-11)
Clinton +27 (R2k 5/7-9)
Clinton +25 (Ras 5/5, 13% undecided)

But, hey, my guess is based on the preponderance of all polling data and the actual demographics breakdown, rather than one ARG poll and wishful thinking. I could be way off.

by Rorgg on Fri May 16, 2008 at 11:53:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Pathetic (2.00 / 2)

What diary are you reading? Diarist never said Clinton should be nominee, simply they should team up.

As for Kentucky, the polls have been pretty consistent:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/ 2008/president/ky/kentucky_democratic_pr imary-638.html

"If we can't live together... we're going to die alone."

by VAAlex on Fri May 16, 2008 at 11:36:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Pathetic (2.00 / 1)

The diarist doesn't say this. He says they need to team up. And he's noting correctly that they are attacking Obama on foreign policy, as they would CLinton if she were the favorite to be nominated.

by Mayor McCheese on Fri May 16, 2008 at 11:41:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New ARG Polls! HRC Leads BIG in Kentucky, With (2.00 / 1)

ARG was surprisingly accurate in West Virginia. Compare:

ARG's last WV poll:

Clinton: 66%
Obama: 23%

Actual results:

Clinton: 67%
Obama: 26%

by kingsbridge77 on Fri May 16, 2008 at 11:30:56 AM EST

even a blind squirrel... (none / 0)

by JJE on Fri May 16, 2008 at 12:34:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: even a blind squirrel... (none / 0)

Falls off a branch?

by mashews on Fri May 16, 2008 at 01:14:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New ARG Polls! HRC Leads BIG in Kentucky, With (none / 0)

This is the first poll diary I have seen in a while. It is curious that the polling outfits aren't investing any time or money by polling the race for the Dem nomination anymore. That must be good for Clinton.

Consider that everything which happens, happens justly, and if thou observest carefully, thou wilt find it to be so. -Marcus Aurelius

by Blue Neponset on Fri May 16, 2008 at 11:36:46 AM EST

Ras stopped doing (none / 0)

its daily primary tracking poll and one pollster, I forget who, did only an Obama-McCain head to head in GA a few days ago.

by Rorgg on Fri May 16, 2008 at 11:45:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]

That would be (none / 0)

Strategic Vision

Student Guy=JoeMentum. No really Student Guy=JoeMentum, after all JoeMentum was an embarrassment so is Student Guy. This sig is FAIL!!

by Student Guy on Fri May 16, 2008 at 11:55:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]

look at all the red states (2.00 / 1)

that Obama won tiny little caucuses in, he is losing them all in the EV count except CO. I expect the results of these elections to be about what this poll is suggesting.
Obama has lost support in demographics where he previously held larger support. There are good reasons for that.

People need to take their heads out of the sand.

For Obama it now becomes: Faith, hope and CHANGE! And the greatest of these is Change!

by TeresaInPa on Fri May 16, 2008 at 11:40:35 AM EST

Re: look at all the red states (none / 0)

Speaking of heads in the sand...

this is a delegate race.

Not a caucus race.

Not a primary race.

Not an EV race.

A delegate race.

He will have the most delegates.

He will be our nominee.

All the HRs in the world won't change reality, Teresa.

should we go outside? / should we break some bread? / are you'nterested?

by Firewall on Fri May 16, 2008 at 11:42:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

lol (none / 0)

it is a super delegate race now and they, if they do their job right, will chose the stronger candidate and the one with more party support. That will be Clinton. Now it is possible that they will run in fear of the media spin about Obama being "robbed" and assume Clinton supporters will vote Obama...but that would be stupid.

BTW.... Obama 248 and Clinton 290 EVs as of now.

For Obama it now becomes: Faith, hope and CHANGE! And the greatest of these is Change!

by TeresaInPa on Fri May 16, 2008 at 11:52:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: lol (none / 0)

Have you noticed that superdelegates have been endorsing Obama at a greater than 10 to 1 ratio since April?

should we go outside? / should we break some bread? / are you'nterested?

by Firewall on Fri May 16, 2008 at 11:54:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Math Magically (none / 0)

A Hillary win is still possible.

What is particularly ironic is the Hope demonstrated by the Hillary camp in the face of certain defeat.

The same sort of mentality surrounded the whole Terry Schiavo debacle.

by xdem on Fri May 16, 2008 at 12:04:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: lol (none / 0)

it is true that ANYTHING can happen in 3 months (until the convention)

by WolfmanJack on Fri May 16, 2008 at 11:59:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I guess this needs to be explained again (none / 0)

GE polls this far out mean nothing. If they meant anything, we'd be at the end of President Gore's second term right now.

And Hillary's poll numbers are inflated right now because the Republicans have been giving her a pass in order to throw everything they have at Obama.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/040 8/9964.html

Her numbers right now are her high-water mark. If she were to somehow get the nomination, the GOP attacks would begin, and she has nowhere to go but down.

by Angry White Democrat on Fri May 16, 2008 at 12:47:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: look at all the red states (2.00 / 1)

Your candidate blew it, Teresa. It's over. They're already explaining to reporters why they lost.
http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/5/16/1141 33/589

We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.

by politicsmatters on Fri May 16, 2008 at 11:44:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]

nah (none / 0)

spinning will not make what you say the truth no matter how dizzy you get.

For Obama it now becomes: Faith, hope and CHANGE! And the greatest of these is Change!

by TeresaInPa on Fri May 16, 2008 at 11:53:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: nah (none / 0)

That's exactly why you should stop pretending the superdelegates will suddenly stop endorsing Obama and start endorsing Clinton.

should we go outside? / should we break some bread? / are you'nterested?

by Firewall on Fri May 16, 2008 at 11:55:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: nah (none / 0)

I'm not saying it, staffers from the Clinton campaign are. My diary draws from an article which interviewed them.

We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.

by politicsmatters on Fri May 16, 2008 at 11:56:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: look at all the red states (none / 0)

Please go away "politic matter." You cannot wish Hillary and her supporters away. Yes, the media want her to disappear, however as she accumulates more primary victories, we trust an awakening and reevaluation will occur. We will not sit still and allow the person we support to be ushered out the door because O supporters, republicans and the media wish it.

by gorgias on Fri May 16, 2008 at 02:13:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Come on, Teresa (none / 0)

I expect you to read SOME of the replies to your posts. But, for your convenience, I'll repeat this one so that you won't accidentally make this claim again. I know you don't want to provide false information:

Among states where either Democrat polls within 5-points head-to-head vs. McCain (aka "Swing States")...

Clinton does better in head-to-head polling in
Arkansas (6), Florida (27), Missouri (11), New Hampshire (4), Ohio (20), Pennsylvania (21), and West Virginia (5). That's 93 EVs.

Obama does better in Colorado (9), Connecticut (7), Hawaii (4), Iowa (7), Indiana (11), Maine (4), Michigan (17), Minnesota (10), North Dakota (3), New Mexico (5), Nevada (5), Oregon (7), Virginia (13), Washington (11), and Wisconsin (10). That's 123 EVs.

by Rorgg on Fri May 16, 2008 at 11:47:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Latest polls (2.00 / 1)

Obama 248
Clinton 290

For Obama it now becomes: Faith, hope and CHANGE! And the greatest of these is Change!

by TeresaInPa on Fri May 16, 2008 at 11:53:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Latest polls (none / 0)

Not even Jerome believes those cherrypicked polls.

should we go outside? / should we break some bread? / are you'nterested?

by Firewall on Fri May 16, 2008 at 11:57:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Latest polls (2.00 / 1)

And Clinton staff realize that they undermined their candidate with that kind of thing:

"We ran a press operation that lost all credibility with the press through endless and pointless memos like, 'Where's the Bounce?' and polling memos that cherry-picked only positive polls when we were up and ignored polling when we were down."
http://www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?i d=f7a4a380-c4a4-4f84-b653-f252e8569915

We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.

by politicsmatters on Fri May 16, 2008 at 11:58:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Show me how that correlates to November (none / 0)

Use 2004.

John McCain on social security.

by heresjohnny on Fri May 16, 2008 at 11:58:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I'm sorry.. (none / 0)

are those the latest polls? Can you give me a cite for each one?

No, you can't. You have no idea which polls they are.

by Rorgg on Fri May 16, 2008 at 01:29:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Moot points. nt (none / 0)

John McCain on social security.